Are There One Million Medical Marijuana Patients in California?

The folks at CA NORML have released their most recent estimate on the number of medical marijuana patients in California. They put the number at between 750,000 and 1,125,000 people, or 2-3% of the population of the state.

Since very few patients are involved in the state ID program, the number has to be estimated, and CA NORML used several criteria to come to their conclusion. First, Colorado reports 2.5% of the state’s population is finding relief with medical marijuana, and Montana puts the number at 3%. Since CA has an older MMJ law and is in some ways more liberal when it comes to medical marijuana, it’s safe to say MMJ use has to be at least 3%.

A 2%+ patient population estimate is [also] supported by data from the Oakland Patient ID Center, which has been issuing patient identification cards to its members since 1996. The OPIDC serves patients from all over the state, but especially the greater Oakland-East Bay area of Northern California, where its cards are honored by law enforcement. As of 2010, the OPIDC had issued ID’s to 19,805 members from five East Bay cities (Oakland, Berkeley, Alameda, Hayward and Richmond), amounting to 2.4% of the local population. Because the cards were issued over a period of 14 years, they include numerous patients who have lapsed, moved, or deceased. On the other hand, they do not include many other local patients who have current recommendations but never registered with the OPIDC.

Even higher numbers have been reported by the Peace In Medicine collective in Sebastopol, Sonoma County, whose members number 3.6% of local residents [02].

And contrary to the predictions of medical marijuana opponents, CA’s liberal MMJ law hasn’t seemed to have spurred increased use in the overall state population.

Despite this, there is no evidence that liberal access to medical marijuana has spurred overall marijuana use in California. According to U.S. SAMHSA data, the total number of users in the state, including non-medical ones, amounts to 6.7% of the population (2.5 million) within the past month, or 11.3% (4.1 million) within the past year. This places California only slightly above the national average in marijuana use ( 6.0% monthly and 10.4% yearly), and below several states with tougher marijuana laws. Use of marijuana by California school youth has declined since Prop. 215 passed, according to data from the Attorney General’s Survey of Student Drug Use in California. The increase in medical marijuana use therefore appears to reflect a tendency for existing users to “go medical,” rather than the enlistment of new users.

So it’s very possible that more than a million medical marijuana patients exist in CA. A very large voting block, if they come together to change things. State politicians should fear crossing medical marijuana patients, yet they clearly don’t.

Until medical marijuana patients are truly united, their rights will continue to be trampled by federal and state governments. It’s time to stand up and say you won’t take it anymore.

-Joe Klare